Sensex 15,000 & Nifty 4,800 by March, or may be lower a real possibility….
My confidence on Markets moving lower strengthening day by day. Till now markets were/are trying to deal with Internal Problems i.e. Corruption, Inflation, Interest Rates, Fiscal Consolidation, Poor spending etc., and now in my opinion, these continuing issues coupled with an increased debate of QE2 withdrawal in US and expectedly a small rate hike subsequent to the withdrawal and a possible rate hike in UK and select stronger economies of European Zone, will keep a check on western markets, making sure our markets any way do not find a way to move upwards.
The point that the FED and the ECB are missing the dangerous word ‘INFLATION’, with more and more market participants keep on reminding the authorities on the same and given the fact that with a prolonged era of Cheap Money, Inflation is bound to hurt these economies sooner than later.
On the top of all these, there is China…Why was China forced to increase the rates, that too twice within a month; is it due to the phenomenal credit growth, leading to too much money chasing too few goods, thus a check is mandatory, all the more due to China being more vulnerable to social unrests… or to provide a cushion to the structural bear markets China is in, which could have got worsen, if these steps were not taken…
More so, the budget is nearby and this coupled with an expected political instability, Mr. Mukherjee will be in double minds. Whether to make the Indians happy by borrowing more to fund NREGA, Tax Benefits, additional Social Programs, Education & Healthcare or to control fiscal consolidation by keeping a check on all the spendings and take a tough stance. I frankly do not have an answer to these questions, but with allies wanting more for their portfolio and key state elections in West Bengal and Tamilnadu around the corner, one never knows…
These factors, though might sound extremely macro in nature, but markets move on perception, and i believe the perception will be getting a reality check…
Best Regards,
Vinit Tulsyan
Markets drive my passions, from across capital markets in India and from around the globe. I am a dilligent student of the markets. I am continuously in the flow - with global market movements, global macro data flows & developments. Networking & markets are an ongoing way of life.I by reading, listening, watching, observing markets & economy all around the globe, try to co-relate and estimate direction for our Indian Economy and Market. 
