HNY:2010 – Hope all your wishes come true along with one expecation: India to enter a strong prolonged growth zone starting Mid or Late 2010
Early 2010: Dilemma – Fight of this dangerous word called “INFLATION” with regulators
Starting Mid or Late 2010: India to enter a strong prolonged growth zone
India as an important Emerging Market component is relatively better placed in comparison to its peers but this relatively better position in order to get converted to beautiful positioning will start taking place only from late 2010. This confidence stems from the fact that the first 6-8 months will see drastic and fast reversal in monetary policy by RBI to curb this dangerous word called “INFLATION” and in order to bring in the fiscal situation in balance, there might be a policy reversal on Fiscal front as well. I will be extremely cautious in late February and Early March due to continued improvement in macro-economic news flow from west, which will make will make India’s and Emerging Markets scenario look even better and this might prompt governments within Emerging markets (especially India due to Budget in late February) to start reversing their fiscal stimulus. So in my opinion, markets will consume time to digest this probable reversal on both fiscal and monetary front simultaneously (in tranches). The consumed time will gradually get in sync with government’s long-term strategy of “inclusive growth”. In my opinion these actions will help curb inflation starting second half of the year, provide an indication of a stability to and reduction in India’s imbalanced fiscal dynamics and subsequently leading to an upgrade in Sovereign Rating. These coupled with young population, more money flow to capital markets by retail as well global investors, high savings, capital formation, high growth, and consumer led economy, strengthened focus on Social and Physical Infrastructure, a renewed focus on Agriculture will certainly help Indian economy to re-enter a healthy prolonged growth zone. These are the reasons, which gives me the confidence that starting mid or late 2010, India is going to outperform most of its peers and could well be one of the best equity markets in the globe in coming years…
Along with hope and the expectation I have for India’s Outperformance in coming years starting Mid or Late 2010, Hope this new year onwards, each day becomes vibrant, wonderful and memorable; fulfilling all your wishes you might have and bringing along many reasons for celebrations.
I started this blog a little more than a year ago, and with the kind of response it has received, it further strengthens my confidence and makes me even more enthusiastic to continue finding a sense a practicality in order to provide a different, rational and no-nonsense perspective to unravel this complex world of capital markets. I thank you all for all the support and encouragement and hope to continue receiving your warmth in future as well…
Thanking You…
Warm Personal Regards,
Vinit Tulsyan
Markets drive my passions, from across capital markets in India and from around the globe. I am a dilligent student of the markets. I am continuously in the flow - with global market movements, global macro data flows & developments. Networking & markets are an ongoing way of life.I by reading, listening, watching, observing markets & economy all around the globe, try to co-relate and estimate direction for our Indian Economy and Market. 
